Financial conditions index — FCI
−0,60Supportive7/7 recent sessions below −0.5
Macro is not the constraint right now — this is a green light on conditions, not a buy signal.
A shock the model cannot see — tariffs, a global sell-off — can still happen. Always confirm against actual price action.
Contribution by componentTotal = FCI
Overnight rate−0,02contribution
VND–SOFR spread0,00contribution
OMO balance0,04contribution
Exchange rate−0,90contribution
DXY0,02contribution
Foreign flows0,18contribution
Inflation (CPI)0,08contribution
Red = tightening · Green = loosening
Macro
Vietnam macro dashboard — USD/VND, interest rates, inflation
Financial Conditions Index (FCI)
One daily score for liquidity/FX-driven market pressure — weighted z-scores of the indicators below; higher = tighter conditions
FCI · Latest · 2026-10-20
-0.60Supportive
ⓘ How is this calculated, and how do I use it?
- It blends seven big-picture signals into one score. Each signal is compared with how it has normally behaved over the past 2 years, and flipped where needed so that a higher score always means tougher conditions for stocks (tighter money, less room on the exchange rate, foreign investors selling, higher inflation). The seven are combined with fixed weights: Money & interest rates 40% (overnight bank lending rate 15, gap between VND and USD rates 15, central-bank cash operations 10) · Exchange rate 30% (room left before the currency hits its cap) · Outside forces 20% (foreign buying/selling 12, US-dollar strength 8) · Inflation 10% (room left under the year's inflation target). The score starts in 2021, once all seven have enough history.
- Risk-off: Risk-off: a score above +1 that holds (5 of the last 7 trading days) has, in the past, come days to weeks before market drops caused by money or currency stress — for example it turned risk-off in June 2022, three months before the September 2022 crash, and again in April 2024, two weeks before the central bank began selling dollars to defend the dong. Read it as a reason to be cautious or stand aside (KB3), and look at the bars below to see which factor is behind it.
- Supportive: Below −0.5 means the big-picture backdrop is NOT the problem right now — it's a green light for conditions, not a buy signal on its own. Shocks this model can't see (tariffs, global sell-offs, surprise news) still happen, and the market has fallen even when this score was low. Always confirm with the actual price action.
FCIOvernight rateVND–SOFR spreadOMO balanceExchange rateDXYForeign flowsInflation (CPI)VN-Indexex-VIC